Time to change our strategic posture
By Brigadier (ret.d) Jahanzeb Raja.
Pakistan has traditionally followed an offensive-defensive doctrine vis-a-vis India while adhering to a defensive doctrine on the western front with Afghanistan in its land doctrine.
(Its mainly been an offensive policy with India, 1948, 1965, 1971, 1990 almost and 1999. Unless I am mistaken Brigadier Sahib in all these instances Pakistan was the initiator of hostile actions. Let us speak the plain truth. The Pakistan military is a British colonial fiction with no real fundamental connections to the Pakistani people, which has in addition been primed to attack India..........like a dog, and like a dog nearing 60 years, without question and without serious reflection it has done so......acha sahib!.....good show sahib! ........brilliant idea sahib!.....only now when the chips are down, and Pakistan's "ally" America is posturing in an hostile manner are questions being asked about Pakistan's strategy. Better late than never.)
The implications of such a policy dictate placing of defensive forces within striking distance of the borders while keeping large uncommitted reserves at strategic locations for counter strikes into enemy territory.
(Yes that would be the sensible course, as I have argued repeatedly. But the IMF are calling the shots soon, and if they have their way the Pakistan military budget will be 30% less to 2.1% of the GDP. That means cuts to the military. I would have 100,000 troops in Baluchistan, 100,000 troops on the NWFP border in strong Battalion formations, 100,000 troops in the NWFP as reserve, backed by 500,000 in Punjab and Sindh as general reserve. With minimal numbers on the Indian border........maybe just lightly armed paramilitary. Of course Brigadier you need to understand that this in itself is not enough. There is a whole mass of other security policies which also need to be followed to compliment this ONE policy..........reorientation of troops is important but not enough, this needs to be applied in conjunction with many other policies internal national security, quasi-security related policies............but you are on the right lines)
This not only ties down a majority of our forces on the Indian fronts which are inactive or are unlikely to change in the short term, but restricts movement of vitally needed forces elsewhere. The escalation of threats from both external and internal forces on the western front is increasingly restricting our military options and creating grounds for anarchy and social unrest.
( Well Brigadier shahib I thought the American strategy was pretty clear in Afghanistan/Pakistan, and your job as a military man is to call it as it is.........you destabilize a target and then you attack. That is what the Americans are doing in the NWFP and Pakistan in general.
It has been an Israeli policy since the 1970's to manage the Pakistani nuclear weapons program which were percieved as a threat to Israel's security. You can see the paranioa of Israel over Iran's peaceful nuclear program. First act of theirs against Pakistan was to topple the Bhutto regime in 1977, through America..........President Carter made direct threats against PM Bhutto on his visit to Pakistan, as did Kissinger before him in 1975/6 for Israel. When these threats failed to move Bhutto, the Americans initiated a coup and brought in the military. Bhutto was executed on false charges.
The Israelis did not do their homework and were sloppy; the main supporters of the nuke bomb program in Pakistan was the military, not the civilian politicians, and when the military came into power with American backing the program only accelerated with billions of $ pouring from Libya and Saudi Arabia. Then the whole military leadership is killed by the Israelis as it dawned on the Israelis who were the actual initiators of the program.
During the 1980's the Israelis also approached India for joint attacks against Pakistan which India correctly turned down......an attack on Pakistan would have indeterminate open ended consequences for India, and would turn Pakistan into a 'hero' in the Muslim world; the program would go under ground; the program would accelerate as a 'national cause' mobilising the whole nation.
The "clever" Israelis also tried other policies in controlling Pakistan's nuclear program......through Turkey (Israeli client state with close security linkages) they actually began supplying the Pakistanis with what they required .........from America with some American approval...Sibel Edmonds........"you supply, you control". The fake blue prints for nuclear reactors supplied to Mullah Iran by the Americans, which accidently turned out to be near perfect blue prints!!!!!!!In reality there is the issue of being clever, and being clever.
After the top military leadership were wiped out in Pakistan the nuclear program went out of control in the late eighties, totally opposite to what the Americans and Israelis wanted at least officially.
It is also my belief that the funding of mad bad Islamic fundamentalists under "Operation Cyclone" and "Greenbelt" was partly to embroil the Pakistan military with the "wrong crowd", and therefore wrong foot them, put them into an awkward defensive position/situation, where by pressure could be exerted to influence and manage Pakistan's nuclear bomb program there after...............The Mujaheddin, with extremely unsavory characters like Hekmatyar...and later ofcourse the Taliban, backed by America, haling from the 8th century, with no Music, no dancing, no pictures, no cinema, no education for girls,...........and no fun.......Now the fact that America backed such people through Pakistan should have been a pause for thought for the Pakistani military..........But Brigadier Sahib, its always "acha sahib"......"no questions asked sahib" "Tell us what to do sahib".
So it is my analysis that the whole Islamic fundamentalist show (1979---2008) in Pakistan/Afghanistan by the American/Israelis was to ensnare Pakistan in an Islamic fundamentalist trap, and use the Islamic fundamentalists as a future Fifth column to attack Pakistan. And so the call by the Americans that Pakistan is the "most dangerous nation on earth" label! WHAT IRONY! WHAT A SURPRISE! And presumably the Americans must deal with it? And presumably they must secure the nuke bombs of Pakistan for the free world?
So Brigadier Sahib we see a whole lot of Israeli activity against Pakistan and the nuke bomb program since the 1970's. The current situation is a continuation of that long policy.
Philosophical musing: Whose fault is all this? The Pakistani military. To be sure they have been victims, but as guardians of the nation they have jeopardized the very existence of the state, as things stand, by following a whole line of false policies over 30 years, without reflecting where it was all going for Pakistan. They lacked strategic depth and foresight, which is their job, in between checking their huge estates in the Punjab and Sindh, and the profits from the narcotics trade and GOD knows what other business these 'MILITARY' people do.
Now the Pakistan armed forces are helping the Americans attack sovereign Pakistani territory, and killing Pakistanis......even though they are fully aware that al-Qaeda is an American/Israeli fiction; The Taliban are an American/Israeli fiction.............Osama died in 2001 as Benazir no less stated on TV......The destabilization in Pakistan is America's work. What an utterly sorry lot, and they call themselves the Pakistan armed forces. Motto...."Faith, Piety, to strive in the path of Allah".) Where is the honesty, piety, decency, service to the nation and faith in all this.
Two Chamars who look like they are meeting their girlfriends for the first time. "You do it this way" "Acha sahib, acha sahib"
Should not therefore a review be carried out of our strategic posture? The dynamics of the western front have changed dramatically.
(Yes there should have been a fundamental review a couple of years ago, but the Western trained top military brass trained in the USA, and UK aren't going to be asking such questions any time soon. Instead the head of the ISI goes to the USA secretly and tells the Americans they can attack Pakistan, no problem as long as the gangsters such as Zardari can complain about it for the hundreth time for Public consumption, "Oh please sahib do not attack my country, because it is not helpful" Yes I can imagine the Americans are really paying attention............Brigadier Sahib you have Mir Jafars in the top brass of the military, and even worse politicians who have served time in prison for corruption.......out of such a bunch of Nachniwali Mujra Chauds how are you going to get a comprehensive security policy for Pakistan?............never)
Punjabi Mujra girl.
Nato and US forces are aggressively pursuing the Taliban and al-Qaeda elements within Pakistan’s borders, striking both from land and by air.
(With the consent of the Nachniwali Mujra Chauds in Pakistan....which one of them work for America? After the invasion which one of them will retire to London and America)
The internecine warfare within Fata is being supported by both state actors and non-state surrogates with the intention of creating anarchy and despair.
( You know who they are, I know who they are)
While the army and paramilitary forces are increasingly being drawn into a long-term insurgency mode, the people are confused between tribal and national unity. Should they support the government now and be punished by the tribe later or support the tribe in the short term with long-term repercussions? They are lost between the devil and the deep blue sea.
(Exactly, precisely....and the arming of the Frontier Corps by the Americans through the Pakistan army, adds fuel to the civil war fire.....remember East Pakistan? The Razakars and al-Badr units. The number of American backed insurgents in FATA means the armed forces reorientated away from India have suffient numbers to deal with the small number of foreign backed insurgents in the NWFP in general. Yes)
The situation in Balochistan is no different, with the writ of the government being challenged at will by insurgents who choose the time and place of attack, resulting in the collapse of the social order.
(Baluchistan has always been run as a Punjab colony, with Punjabi armed forces stationed there near civilian areas, with Punjabi police operating like colonial era Raj police forces. This needs to stop, with Baluchis being given real power over their own province. Finally greater autonomy for Baluchistan, and greater financial resources............the Balchis need a little bit more love from the Punjab.)
Relations with our erstwhile foe, India on the eastern border, continue to improve both on the Line of Control in Kashmir and Siachen, where a ceasefire continues to hold since 2004, with no significant threat.The present insurgency in Kashmir only hints at its past glory, where the Indian forces were actively engaged on numerous fronts with cross-border aspersions being cast on Pakistani infiltrators. This calls for a radical shift in orientation of not only our ground forces, but their relocation to new cantonments further west into Balochistan and NWFP where the threat is the greatest.This will have the effect of not only projecting a military presence in the area but also demonstrate the logistic stamina to undertake long-term military operations when needed.The presence of military forces in previously inaccessible areas of Fata and Balochistan will not only give active support to tribes loyal to the government, but provide the much needed security to foreign and local firms active in exploitation of minerals and oil. It will also free the paramilitary forces from protection duties along the numerous lines of communications where they are being frittered away.
( Now you are talking like a real Pakistani military person......................you provide good solutions, that are practical. But Brigadier shahib this is only a small part of the solution, as stated before. You simply cannot reorientated troops from East to West just like that..........there has got to be something more. For Pakistan to draw a line on the sand with India in such a way, as a gesture to India, Pakistan MUST sign an FTA with India, and later negotiate seriously about legalising the LOC. This compliments the troop reorientation to the West, and reinforces Pakistan's Eastern border. This is the logical thing to do, and is strategically good for Pakistan.
There is no guarantee that after considerable cajoling since the eighties by Israel (remember the joint attacks discussed with India against Pakistan) and closer relations with the USA recently, the Indian government might in the future join in any possible Paki bashing that may be entertained by the Obama administration. So Pakistan fights a war on two fronts.......Too negate that possiblity of fighting a two front war and losing, and being occupied, and being Iraqified, resulting in mass deaths and mass refugees, Pakistan MUST sign an FTA with India asap, and legalise the LOC.
The Americans historically, and the racists Jews in particular aren't great lovers of brown people (Jews like Occidental countries to play and settle in), so if they are being very nice to India now, its for a specific objective.
Now is that going to happen under Nachiwali Mujra Chauds Kiyani/Zardari and the rest? No. these fuckers have visted Greece, Turkey, UAE, Saudi, China, Britain, USA, and many other countries usually begging for money (IZZAT), but not India. Because Britain and USA will veto such action.
I'm not talking about love for India, just doing whats right for Pakistan. For Pakistan to become more mature and adult and deal with India accordingly. Turning away from India, holding meaningless round of talks with India as empty gesture politics is futile for Pakistan.
The only solution then in that situation is to remove these people from their positions, and get people with the best interests of Pakistan within Pakistani society to such positions. There has got to be a few men like you, and others in the civilian sector. You can't afford to have a felon and gangster from Sindh running the show in Pakistan for America.
The presence of US troops and bases in Balochistan is the cause of the anger of local tribes and the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan against the government and the army. There needs to be a reappraisal of the deployment of these troops in these areas where they are purportedly supporting the radical elements in the insurgency.The Pakistan Army needs to take over these bases and garrison them for purposes of internal stability so that outside interference is minimised. If we accept the fact that state actors are actively supporting the insurgency and yet allow the presence of foreign forces inside our territory who then are we fooling? Only ourselves I am afraid.
( You dear Brigadier like a true gentlemen use such soft words to describe this incredible situation. It is unbelievable! The Pakistan "politicians" and top brass know exactly who is backing these anti state insurgents...............and yet 1) The Americans are allowed their bases on Pakistan. 2) Allowed to bring in yet more military advisors to train the Frontier Corps 3) Allowed to attack sovereign Pakistan territory, with the OK of Zardari and Kiyani.!!!!!!!!!!!4) Will be allowed to manage the Pakistan economy through the IMF. Words cannot describe this situation. Brigadier Sahib you know where this situation is leading.....you know....you know.....and so must the Pakistani armed forces which aren't Nachiwali Mujra Chaud to America. So must the real politicians of Pakistan.)
Lastly, the China question. We have repeatedly parroted the very close ties with China and the active strategic support we are getting from them without giving major concessions in return. China is constructing strategic dams, ports and power plants in the country with construction periods ranging from eight to 10 years. In the long term, the Chinese presence needs to be bolstered by giving them their own security arrangements in the form of troops and even bases at strategic locations, especially when a concerted campaign to eliminate Chinese workers is unfolding. Pakistan’s vision of being the gateway for energy and trade corridors from China and Central Asia can never materialise until we can provide the much-needed investment climate and security to foreign investors. Billions of rupees have gone into preparing the infrastructure for these very corridors, but their utilisation can never be economically maximised unless peace prevails in our region. If we can have US troops on our soil then why not Chinese troops? This paradigm shift in policy has to be taken if we realise that the allies across the Durand Line are not sincere towards the cause of Pakistan and are actively supporting insurgents to destabilise the region.This will no doubt have a profound effect upon future US-Pakistan relations but will also test our allies’ true intentions in the region. If they are sincere towards our security and development goals then dramatic changes will take place at the government level both in Afghanistan and in India. The presence of Chinese troops will not only dissipate tribal anger but will have trans-border implications across the region.
(This is an interesting idea. But really ultimately it falls on the old failed premise of relying on foreign powers to protect Pakistan when fundamentally that is the prime and duty of Pakistan only. The Pakistan armed forces. How many different types of foreign troops do you want on Pakistani soil? Isn't that creeping Iraqification by default? The Chinese have been stalwart allies of Pakistan providing arms, and getting involved in heavy strategic projects with reasonable credit terms. How many strategic projects have America and Britain been involved in Pakistan? None.........................The Chinese workers need to be protected, so they should be given firearms training, and allowed to carry firearms. This should be bolstered with greater Pakistani military security protection; we are only talking about a few thousand Chinese workers. Generous compensation provided by the Pakistani government to families of Chinese workers who are killed by foreign backed insurgents.
As I understand it with Kiyani's visit to China recently , this will mean more Chinese military personnel in Pakistan, but this seems like an adhoc policy. In 1971 the Chinese remained seriously neutral as Pakistan was being divided, and in 1999 during Kargil they were again silent.
Is Communist China going to save the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, and come to her aid if USAREAL with India attack? I think not. Pakistan is strategically important to China with access to the Gulf and hence their participation over Gwadar, but past performance suggests they won't intervene. Some Pakistanis foolishly over estimate their value to China into falsely believing that China will protect them when it comes to war.
Having said this who knows, the Chinese might in the future flex their muscle, and decide as the greatest industrial power in the world, and defacto banker to the world to confront the USA if Pakistan is attacked. As a Pakistani leader I would get signed security guarantees from the Chinese that in the event of an attack by America, China immediately and significantly would intervene on behalf of Pakistan in order to demonstrate to America that Pakistan is China's 100% sphere of influence, and China has important strategic interests to protect in Pakistan.
For the Chinese to make such commitments to Pakistan, Pakistan would first have to ditch America 100%. Close all American military bases on Pakistani soil, and stop taking American military aid. Why should the Chinese commit to and protect a defacto, unrealiable "American ally" which is "bitch slapped" by America publicly? Then allow Chinese military personnel into Pakistan, and Chinese warships at Gwadar permanently. Very public training and military manouvers with China involving a couple of Chinese divisions in Pakistan.
The US is posturing to place India as a major regional power both against Pakistan, China and Iran. It will have to rethink its regional game plan.
(Like I said before, the USA(Jew) has never been a great fan of brown India. However it is a country that simply can't be ignored, whether by Pakistan as neighbor which must forge a new more realistic alliance with India, or the USA. India's economy is now $4.5 trillion PPP, the thrd largest in the world. They have 2 million men under arms unofficially, the second largest military in the world, and the fourth most powerful military after the USA, China, Russia.
The Americans have paid lip service in talking about making India into a "great power": 1) India is a significant power already, regardless of America. 2) India will be a great power if so she chooses without American help, whether in 10 years time, 20 years time or 30, India will be great power. 3) It is not in India's interests to become embroiled negatively with Asian neighbors for Uncle Sam's strategic objectives, acting as an appendage bit player. 4) The statements of the Americans about making India a "Great Power" is lip service, with no connections with reality and only a fawning idiot in the ICS would believe such statements. Which nation in the world wants to create/help a great power which might one day eclipse it? There is none.
I think Brigadier Shahib you don't give enough credit to the Indians. Whilst Pakistani leaders have been easily persuaded to betray their own country by America, that has not been the case with the civilian leadership of India. Otherwise Brigadier Sahib you would have seen a joint Israeli/Indian attack against Pakistani nuclear facilities in the 1980's. I understand that the Israelis in their usual Jew mode were quite persistent, and it is now 2008.
The threat to Iran from potential US-Israeli strikes is likely to recede dramatically bringing about a rapprochement between the two estranged friends, whose relations are badly eroded due to the power play in Afghanistan engineered by the US-led Karzai regime.
(Ha? Karzai is a weak ineffectual puppet, who cries often...........no more........not a political svengali who has clout in Washington. Washingtons policies towards Iran are dictated significantly by Israel, and other groups within America)
Afghanistan will have to very seriously rethink its foreign interests in Pakistan and the attendant cost with the presence of a major power next door.
(Not clear.............who is a major power, Pakistan, Iran? Both are not major powers. They are powerful compared to Afghanistan, but not major powers. Second the Afghans are not masters of their own destiny; they are occupied by foreign powers who run their country. The weak ineffectual 'MAYOR' of Kabul has no power, installed by the Americans working for the American company UNICOL before his current job, so the statement "Afghanistan will have to decide" is misleading.......meaningless)
The Indian presence in Afghanistan is likely to reduce, especially with the likely withdrawal of allied troops in the not too distant future. With the change of leadership in Afghanistan the upside obviously would be elimination of support to the insurgents who will not survive indefinitely.The opportunity is there for our policymakers, provided we have the will and courage to bring about the change in our strategic posture.
( The idea that the coalition is going to leave Afghanistan any time soon is being a little optimistic. Obama wants to increase the American troops there, as does the British............so we are here for the long haul. This is what Pakistan needs to face up to. The profits from Heroin/opium in Afghanistan is huge for the criminal elements of America. In addition to the Pakistan nuke bomb dimension. Thus huge amounts of this is being shipped through the facilities of the American Airforce to narco state Kosovo/Albania, and then into Europe and North America. A certain percentage is also going through Pakistan with the approval of the criminalised elements of the Pakistan military. Billions, and billions, and billions $ of profits, of other peoples work (Afghans given a pittance); whilst the Americans get to posture to the world as noble righteous warriors, safe guarding the world from Islamic fundamentalism; torturing and harrassing Afghans as an added side pleasure of psychopathic criminals. It simply cannot be run as an honest fair business......for the Americans, like WalMart. It must be done in the way of Jew gangsters.
As to will and courage from the present set of military brass and Zardari bhai's gangs, forget it. You need a change of leadership in both areas first, and then the right policies. Zardari bhai mean while will be selling what ever of Pakistan he can in order to stay in power.......until it becomse utter chaos, AND that is why he was brought into power by America/UK in the first place)