From time to time I comment on Iran's defense/security posture.
The first thing one must say is that the UK/USA installed the mullahs into power, for whatever reason in 1st February 1979, but generally NOT for good reasons. The puppet Shah had outlasted his usefulness to them.
Since then Iran singularly along with North Korea have become the greatest pariah states on earth, constantly demonized by the International Jewish media with considerable help from the puppet mullahs themselves, and their caricature puppet fronts (Ahmedinejad).
Iran is also an extremely corrupt un-Godly state. There is a considerable divergence between what the mullahs say and what they do. Mass Deception.
Real living standards have declined in Iran since 1979, and have never recovered to their 1979 levels.
In 1979 PPP per capita income was near $18,000 at present prices.....and now in 2012 it is near $13,000.
5 million mostly educated Iranians have left Iran, or have been squeezed out of Iran by the mullah regime. They have taken their vast skills with them mostly to the West.
The mullah regime NATURALLY has become a target of hate and military aggression by Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Israel, USA, UK, little Qatar and even little Azerbaijan. This would not have happened under the puppet Shah......the mullahs are natural foils of hatred because of what they represent, and what they do, and what they often say through their backsides. The mullahs treat diplomacy as Friday sermons at the Mosque.
Naturally their defense/security policy is very very poor.
One the one hand the closure of the USA/UK/Israeli embassies in Tehran is excellent for ensuring greater security of the country. However modern spies do not always operate from the embassy as embassy staff......Modern NGO's, journalists, businessmen, tourists can also act as very very good spies of the USA/UK/Israeli who come with bad intentions.
Iran's borders are poorly managed, and the mullahs have not fully secured the Afghan/Pakistan/Iran borders......the Persian Gulf Coast, the Iraq/Iran border through which many criminality takes place....the Turkish/Iran border...the Azerbaijan/Iran border....the Turkmen/Iran order.
There isn't a fully integrated radar system with local stations that cover the whole country, nor EXTENSIVE local bases for sending security personnel to infiltrated areas. In some areas it would take several hours for security forces to reach the area......even if detection of infiltration took place.
At a more general level conventional forces are weak. I am talking about the conventional forces that would do the bulk of the ACTUAL fighting against Israel/USA incursion/invasion.
The CIA Taliban in 2001, CIA Saddam in 1991 and 2003, and CIA Gaddafi in 2011 were defeated by one thing ONLY, they ALL had weak air power/air-defense, and the USA/NATO had strong air-power. Weak misguided puppets of the USA which with their poor security policy and close infiltration of their governments are attacked, and occupied by the USA.
According to Jane's IISS Military Balance, Iran has only 190 jet fighters that can take to the air and defend the country. These planes in themselves are mostly 3rd generation fighters from the 1960's and 1970's design. The mullahs for 33 years have not either bought in bulk from Russia or China more modern jet fighters or built one for themselves......or undertaken joint production with Turkey/Pakistan.
The mullahs boast every day about building aircraft carriers and sailing to the Atlantic, Mediterranean, or destroyers, frigates, BUT such projects are irrelevant to the REAL defense of Iran. The threat is on the Iranian land mass where jet fighters, AA guns and SAMs play the main role. Iran has about 1,800 AA guns and far fewer SAMs of USA origin and out dated (HAWK).
Iran requires 1000 serviceable 4/5th generation interceptor jets, and 100,000 full-time in the air-force. At least 20--30,000 AA guns of 20, 40, 100mm caliber. About 3000 SAM systems.....and another 100,000 personnel in air-defense capacity......full time personnel. If they do their job properly there will be no ground invasion, or even a threat of an attack in the first place. If they however look weak......where the Israelis and Americans think they can destroy them in a few weeks, then ground invasion or further air attacks against 2500 targets in Iran will take place which will comprehensively destroy the country, its infrastructure, with the addition of many civilian casualties and the eventual collapse of the regime.
My intelligence states that clearly the mullah regime is a puppet regime brought into power by the USA/UK, and that even though these two predatory regime may not have embassies in Iran, never the less they have their "contacts" and "agents" in the country through whom false security is promoted. .....which diverts from the real military objectives of the country for 33 years of mullah rule.
The mere 3% of GDP expenditure on defense is another indication of this fact, along with the huge misuse of public funds into offshore accounts of the mullahs, and the massive corruption which is tolerated by the mullah run regime which is accepted as normal in public, with an absence of creating clear strategies for combating these crimes.
After air-defense/air-power is overcome in a few weeks 2/3, the next defense of Iran will be the army. Unfortunately the mullahs as puppets of the USA/UK have divided and thus weakened this area by creating two parallel and competing forces, with the politicized businessmen of the Pasdran given greater priority in terms of respect, responsibility and financial support. The Pasdran's performance against Iraq between 1980--1988 was extremely poor, but given the mass desertion from the Shah's conscripted army (70%) it is understandable why the Pasdaran was created THEN.
There is no excuse why the Pasdaran should still exist, and the Pasdaran and Artesh should have been integrated as one force from 1991, otherwise they NATURALLY work against each other at cross purposes.
No other country in the world has two separately organized armies.
It would be reasonable for the regular army to be kept at 800,000 full-time professionals with no conscription, with a reserve of 700,000. They should be moved out with their equipment from their normal bases, and especially from the big urban areas. Focus should made on small scale fighting. The Pasdaran at 300,000 with no reserve, carrying out specialized ops outside of Iran when the need arises.
The Bassej disbanded, as it is very dangerous to create a peoples militia...and where a high percentage of Iranian youths naively admire the USA....it will be very foolish to arm them and mobilize them in time of war......only to find out that a considerable number do not believe in the mullah paradise.
Hezbollah with 5000 fighters, The Iraqi Sunni resistance with 30,000 fighters, the Afghan Mujaheddin with 70,000 fighters and the Vietcong with 500,000 were relatively small Third World forces who fought well, irregular warfare, with very poor basic equipment. Iran does not need to go down that path as it is a significant state with significant state resources at its disposal which need to be used efficiently, effectively and wisely.
Larijani urges improving Iran defense power in proportion to threats
Iran's Majlis Speaker Ali Larijani
Iran's Majlis Speaker Ali Larijani has underlined the necessity for improving the country’s defense capabilities to the highest level and in proportion to enemies’ threats.
“We should pay attention to defense preparedness so that our defense capabilities meet the highest [level] as far as possible,” Larijani said Saturday in a Tehran ceremony marking the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Day.
He emphasized that other than cultural efforts the country must be defensively well-equipped as well and noted that “our defensive efforts must conform to our country’s terrain diversity as well as the enemies [military] capacities.”
Insisting that the country’s confrontation with the enemy in the international scene is multifaceted, Larijani added that at some cases our enemies engage in rogue political measures against us and in other instances they resort to other sorts of pressure to undermine our nation.
The present conditions as well as the country’s national interests call for the high deterrence preparedness of the Armed Forces, he concluded.